The stock market recently marked the one-year anniversary of the 2020 bear market waterfall lows, providing an opportunity to examine what history suggests might occur this year based on the recent recovery. The S&P 500’s four-quarter gain of 54% is the fourth-highest since 1926 and best since WWII.
2020 was a year unlike any other, that meaningfully contributed to over a decade of recovery in the financial markets that is impressive by historical comparison over the past century. Even if a person was so unlucky to start investing at the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis in late 2007 but remained steadfast through both the worst financial crisis and pandemic in 100 years, this investor still would have prospered handsomely.
Dominated by a handful of stocks benefitting from Covid-19…Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Apple, and Google, the S&P 500 soared 35% from April through August, its best five months since 1938. The index fell 4% in September, but the six-month gain of 30% was still the best since 2009. During a recovery, as recently experienced, there are always investors that succumb to instinctive fears by irresistibly extrapolating possible negative outcomes of future economic and political events, often disrupting their longer-term strategic investment plans.
It’s hard to believe that the “Good Old Days” were just six months ago. High volatility is now the norm and not the exception. So far this year, the shortest major decline in history was followed by the second fastest rising bull market since 1932. To what degree this trend continues can have long-term market implications.
Financial markets never like uncertainty. Although many things stemming from this devastating virus are unprecedented, investor behavior continues to follow historical patterns.
Investors everywhere are cognizant that 2019 was a wonderful year for the global financial markets. U.S. stocks led the advance from +25% to over +30%, depending on their market capitalization (company size). But how important is this, really?
The global economy continues to weaken, with some countries, such as Germany, on the brink of a recession. Less than ten percent of developed countries are now expanding. So why does the U.S. stock market continue to meander near all-time highs…
If past trends continue to prove indicative of future performance, the stock market can attain further sizable gains before the longest bull market in history ends. Contrary to this outlook, Duke University’s recent survey of CFOs across the U.S. reports that two-thirds believe a recession will begin in 2020…
April 10, 2019
Stocks and bonds seldom rise together. Fortunately, 2019 is proving to be an exception along with many other investment, economic, and political precedents in recent years. Global financial markets have fully recovered from their modest declines in 2018, leading the way to even further gains…
January 9, 2019
A great deal has changed since investors’ overenthusiasm drove stocks up 20% to 30% in most major financial markets in 2017. By contrast, in 2018 stocks rose nine months and fell three months, resulting in negative returns overall….
October 7, 2018
U.S. investors are increasingly optimistic about the future as they continue to pour more money into our stock market. The U.S. is one of only three global stock markets (along with India and Australia) making new highs recently. But can the U.S. remain an oasis during this global correction while China and many developed countries struggle for higher growth?
July 9, 2018
Investors are aware that the U.S. stock market’s upward momentum has temporarily ceased and is now in a sideways trading range. However, many were caught off guard by U.S. stocks continuing to outperform their foreign counterparts during the first half of 2018. Institutional and retail investors alike took profits in U.S. stocks earlier this year after last year’s stellar performance…
April 5, 2018
You may find surprising that the real news during first quarter 2018 was not the stock market back-tracking its year-to-date progress, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the 6th time, or even Trump’s introduction of trade tariffs; instead it was something else…