Quarterly Commentary

Q4 2020

October 2020

Dominated by a handful of stocks benefitting from Covid-19…Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft, Apple, and Google, the S&P 500 soared 35% from April through August, its best five months since 1938. The index fell 4% in September, but the six-month gain of 30% was still the best since 2009. During a recovery, as recently experienced, there are always investors that succumb to instinctive fears by irresistibly extrapolating possible negative outcomes of future economic and political events, often disrupting their longer-term strategic investment plans.

Q3 2020

July 2020

It’s hard to believe that the “Good Old Days” were just six months ago. High volatility is now the norm and not the exception. So far this year, the shortest major decline in history was followed by the second fastest rising bull market since 1932. To what degree this trend continues can have long-term market implications.

Q2 2020

April 2020

Financial markets never like uncertainty. Although many things stemming from this devastating virus are unprecedented, investor behavior continues to follow historical patterns.

Q1 2020

January 2020

Investors everywhere are cognizant that 2019 was a wonderful year for the global financial markets. U.S. stocks led the advance from +25% to over +30%, depending on their market capitalization (company size).  But how important is this, really?

Q4 2019

October 2019

The global economy continues to weaken, with some countries, such as Germany, on the brink of a recession. Less than ten percent of developed countries are now expanding.  So why does the U.S. stock market continue to meander near all-time highs…

Q3 2019

July 2019

If past trends continue to prove indicative of future performance, the stock market can attain further sizable gains before the longest bull market in history ends. Contrary to this outlook, Duke University’s recent survey of CFOs across the U.S. reports that two-thirds believe a recession will begin in 2020…

Q2 2019

April 10, 2019

Stocks and bonds seldom rise together. Fortunately, 2019 is proving to be an exception along with many other investment, economic, and political precedents in recent years. Global financial markets have fully recovered from their modest declines in 2018, leading the way to even further gains…

Q1 2019

January 9, 2019

A great deal has changed since investors’ overenthusiasm drove stocks up 20% to 30% in most major financial markets in 2017. By contrast, in 2018 stocks rose nine months and fell three months, resulting in negative returns overall….

Q4 2018

October 7, 2018

U.S. investors are increasingly optimistic about the future as they continue to pour more money into our stock market. The U.S. is one of only three global stock markets (along with India and Australia) making new highs recently. But can the U.S. remain an oasis during this global correction while China and many developed countries struggle for higher growth?

Q2 2018

July 9, 2018

Investors are aware that the U.S. stock market’s upward momentum has temporarily ceased and is now in a sideways trading range. However, many were caught off guard by U.S. stocks continuing to outperform their foreign counterparts during the first half of 2018. Institutional and retail investors alike took profits in U.S. stocks earlier this year after last year’s stellar performance…

Q1 2018

April 5, 2018

You may find surprising that the real news during first quarter 2018 was not the stock market back-tracking its year-to-date progress, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the 6th time, or even Trump’s introduction of trade tariffs; instead it was something else…